In 2024, the United States’ economic engagement with Sub-Saharan Africa is concentrated among a handful of key partners — notably South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, and Kenya. These countries account for the greatest share of U.S. trade in the region and are also among the most active beneficiaries of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). South Africa leads with roughly $20.5 billion in total goods trade, supported by a relatively diversified and industrialized economy. Trade with South Africa includes vehicles, machinery, electronics, and high-value commodities such as platinum and other precious metals.

 

Nigeria follows with about $10 billion in total goods trade, driven primarily by oil and mineral fuel exports to the United States. At the same time, U.S. exports to Nigeria include industrial equipment, refined petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, and food goods. Angola remains another important energy partner, supplying the U.S. with petroleum while increasingly drawing U.S. interest in its mineral resources and infrastructure—especially through projects linked to the Lobito Corridor, which is intended to improve transport routes from Central Africa to the Atlantic.

 

Ghana and Kenya round out the top five partners. Both countries maintain steady relationships with the United States and actively participate in AGOA. Ghana, in particular, benefits from dedicated U.S. trade support platforms, while Kenya continues to pursue deeper trade cooperation through ongoing U.S.-Kenya trade negotiations.

 

Although trade volumes remain modest compared to U.S. trade with other world regions, economic integration extends beyond simple trade balances. U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa continues to be relatively limited and concentrated mainly in extractive industries—especially in energy and mining sectors in countries like Nigeria and Angola. Meanwhile, U.S. development assistance remains a central pillar of engagement. Major recipients such as Ethiopia and Nigeria receive substantial support for health systems, governance, and economic reform. Programs such as AGOA and the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) reinforce these relationships by promoting structural reforms, infrastructure development, and private-sector growth.

 

Five-Year Outlook: 2026–2031

 

Over the next five years, U.S. trade and investment with Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to gradually expand — but unevenly and selectively.

 

South Africa is expected to remain the dominant U.S. trade partner in the region, though domestic political and energy-supply challenges may create volatility. Growth in renewable energy technology, automotive exports, and critical minerals may strengthen ties.

 

Nigeria will likely continue to rely heavily on oil exports, but diversification efforts — particularly in technology services and consumer markets — could increase U.S. non-energy exports.

 

Angola may benefit from energy security dynamics and U.S. strategic interest in non-Chinese supply chains for minerals and infrastructure.

 

Ghana and Kenya are expected to remain stable, reform-oriented partners, attracting American businesses in services, agriculture, logistics, and light manufacturing.

 

Overall, U.S. engagement will likely be guided by strategic competition with China, supply-chain diversification, and expansion of digital and green-energy sectors. Growth will be incremental rather than explosive, constrained by infrastructure, governance challenges, and market risk.

 

Comparison: Jamaica, Haiti, and Colombia

 

Compared to Sub-Saharan Africa, the United States already maintains much deeper economic integration in the Western Hemisphere:

 

Colombia is the standout partner. It has a formal U.S. Free Trade Agreement, high bilateral investment flows, and deep integration in energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and services. Over the next five years, the U.S.–Colombia economic relationship is likely to remain strong, though domestic political and security issues may influence investor confidence. U.S. companies will continue to view Colombia as a near-shore alternative to Asia.

 

Jamaica maintains a moderate but steady economic relationship with the U.S., focused on tourism, services, remittances, bauxite, and infrastructure. U.S. investment will likely grow gradually in logistics, digital services, and renewable energy.

 

Haiti, by contrast, faces severe instability. Economic engagement with the U.S. will likely remain constrained or even decline over the next five years due to insecurity, institutional breakdown, humanitarian crisis, and limited investor confidence. The U.S. role will likely remain focused on humanitarian support and stabilization rather than commercial expansion.

 

Key Contrast

 

Sub-Saharan Africa:

Growth potential is large but uneven, with strong opportunities in energy, minerals, infrastructure, and emerging digital sectors — though progress depends heavily on political stability and regulatory reform.

 

Colombia & Jamaica:

Engagement remains stable and predictable, driven by geographic proximity and trade agreements.

 

Haiti:

Engagement remains largely non-commercial, oriented around aid and crisis response.

 

Bottom Line

 

Over the next five years, the United States is likely to modestly increase—but not transform—its trade and investment footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa, with the strongest gains occurring in middle-income, reform-oriented economies and resource-rich states aligned with U.S. strategic interests. Meanwhile, U.S. economic ties with Colombia and Jamaica will remain stronger and more structurally embedded, while Haiti will continue to lag due to ongoing instability.

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Author Norman E. Gilliam

Global Millennium International NGO

Vice President of Human Resource Management

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